Polling Results Show Voter Pessimism in Southwest Washington as State Is Divided on Issues

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In a presentation at the state Capitol on Jan. 5, Stuart Elway, a well known Seattle-based pollster, reviewed the results of a poll of registered voters in Washington he recently conducted.

The poll, in its 31st year and conducted with the news organization Crosscut, interviewed 403 registered voters through a variety of different mediums and was completed recently.

“This is registered voters. It’s not the general population,” Elway told a room full of reporters in the committee hearing room of the John A. Cherberg Building on the capitol campus in Olympia.

The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 5% and reported the outlook of voters in addition to their opinions on a range of issues.

According to Elway’s polls, 40% of Washington voters self-identify as Democrats, compared to 21% who identified as Republicans and 38% who either identified as independents or provided no answer. However, a large portion of independent identifying voters tend to favor Republicans when it comes time to vote.

“(Independents) do lean more conservative,” Elway said.

Beyond identification, voters described themselves as being pessimistic in outlook. According to Elway, his poll’s voter outlook index, which measures voter outlook on the country, state, community and household level, hit its lowest level in its 31-year history last July after a decade-long downward trend.

Voter outlook has since seen its largest jump in the poll’s history, though voters’ overall outlook remained relatively low compared to before the COVID-19 pandemic. The most significant jump in voter outlook was on the household level.

According to Elway, Democrats are more optimistic than Republicans, with a voter outlook index score of 2.7 compared to the Republican score of -3.3. Independent voters scored in between the two parties on outlook and were relatively pessimistic on the country level and relatively optimistic on the household level.

Levels of optimism varied regionally, with some areas of the state rating as more optimistic on the voter outlook index than others. The Puget Sound region was reported as being more optimistic relative to eastern and western Washington. Western Washington, which Elway described as containing Southwest Washington, was rated as being especially pessimistic.

Part of the reason for the geographic divide in voter outlook may be related to unequal levels of economic growth in the state.

“The Puget Sound area has just been booming more and the rest of the state hasn’t,” Elway said.

In determining the top issues facing voters, Elway gave respondents an open ended question asking them to name what they believed to be the top issue facing the state. Afterwards, answers were organized by type.

The economy came in as the number one issue facing the state with 34% of respondents listing an economic issue. Of the 34% who listed economic issues as their top concern, 15% named cost of living or inflation as their most important issue, and 11% cited housing costs. The economy was rated the number one issue last year as well.

Public safety was the second most commonly mentioned issue by voters, an increase from last year, with 23% naming it as their top issue.



Homelessness was the third most commonly named issue, with 22% of respondents naming it their number one issue, one percentage point below public safety.

The fourth most commonly named issue by respondents were taxes. During his presentation, Elway described the relative level of interest in taxes by voters as being a useful tool for determining whether an issue would be considered important.

“If it’s below taxes, maybe next year,” Elway said.

Elway also polled the public response to several policy proposals, ranging from housing bonds to gun regulations.

On the issue of how to allocate $6 billion in unspent revenue, 55% of respondents said the extra tax money should be used to fund programs without raising taxes while 12% wanted to put the money into reserves. A total of 22% of respondents said they would like to see the money used to reduce taxes.

The proposed use of bonds to finance housing construction received majority support, with 52% of voters in favor, but was geographically polarizing. While the proposal received the support of a majority of voters in King, Pierce and Kitsap counties, the proposal failed to garner majority support elsewhere. According to Elway, the proposal was supported by a majority of voters in urban areas but was opposed by a majority of voters in the western and eastern regions of the state, as well as by 78% of Republicans.

The Working Families Tax Credit, a program providing up to $1,200 in tax credits to individuals and families meeting certain requirements, received majority support amongst all demographic groups except for Republicans, among whom the program received 49% plurality support.

Restrictions that would ban the sale of new gas-powered cars in the near future were opposed by 54% of voters, though as with the issue of housing bonds, opinion was split along geographic lines with support being inversely correlated to population density. While Democrats supported the proposal with 64% in favor, Republicans were opposed at higher rates with 85% against such a policy.

Public opinion was most closely divided on the issue of eliminating single family home zoning in localities with a population above 6,000 people. Statewide, 48% opposed the proposal to 45% in favor. The proposed zoning changes were favored in the Puget Sound region while being opposed in all other parts of the state.

A proposed ban on the sale of semi-automatic weapons had the “most entrenched opinion” of any issue polled, Elway told the reporters.

“You might be surprised to find this is a contentious issue,” Elway said.

A total of 56% of voters favored the proposed sales ban while 39% were opposed. Furthermore, 39% were strongly in favor while 30% were strongly opposed. A majority of Eastern Washington voters favored the sales ban.

According to Elway, in recent years income has not had a significant impact on policy positions in polling of Washington voters.

“Income does not have much of an impact on most of these issues,” Elway said. “It’s just been lately, the last few years, the partisan position just seems to swamp everything else.”